Dairy Market: Spot Milk on the Rise Newsletter – June 1, 2026
Value is not created through administration, but through better cheese.
(Antoine the Cheesemaker; Gruyères, circa 1680)
Salon du Fromage, Paris (June 7–9)
Experience the premiere of the Swiss cheese brand family Alpelle – four characters, one legend.
Featuring also Antoine Alpages and selected flower meadow cheese with raw milk.
Complimentary trade visitor passes available upon request.
Review & Outlook
At the end of May, the market is sending mixed signals. The spot milk market continues to rise; industry sources expect it to reach contract milk price levels within the next 3–4 weeks. High temperatures are supporting fresh product demand while reducing milk volumes and solids.
At the same time, high butter inventories and competitively priced products (especially Gouda from Poland) are weighing on the market.
The protein segment (WPC80/WPI90) continues to move upward almost unchecked.
Overall, the cheese market is balanced. Stocks remain low in many regions, with some local exceptions; larger volumes are expected to return to the market in autumn.
Milk Deliveries (Week 20)
- Germany: +0.3% vs. previous week, +5.9% YoY
- France: −0.6% vs. previous week, −0.7% YoY
EU-wide seasonal peak reached
Milk Deliveries – April 2026
- Netherlands: −3.8% YoY (Jan–Apr: +5.3%)
- Poland: +3.3% YoY (Jan–Apr: +3.3%)
- Austria: +7.2% YoY (Jan–Apr: +8.1%)
- USA: +2.7% YoY (Jan–Apr: +3.0%; herd +2.0%, new record level)
- New Zealand: +6.0% YoY (Jan–Apr: +5.6%, strong increase)
- Australia: +4.1% YoY (Jan–Apr: +2.2%)
- Argentina: +0.5% YoY (growth significantly slower vs. Q1 +9.4%; Jan–Apr: +7.1%)
Milk Deliveries – March 2026
- EU-27: +4.4% YoY (slightly slower vs. February +4.8%)
EU-27 Exports – Q1 2026
- Cheese: 336,245 t (+0.9%)
- Skimmed milk powder: 197,134 t (+5.6%)
- Butter & AMF: 74,825 t (+29.0%)
- Milk & cream: 265,346 t (+10.0%)
- Whey powder: 169,318 t (−5.7%)
- Condensed milk: 85,265 t (−19.3%)
Cheese Market
- Flower meadow cheese with raw milk (premium segment): prices stable
- Standard cheeses: mixed in week 22
- Gouda slightly lower at €3.455 (−0.3%) – pressure from Polish product
- Mozzarella +0.4% to €3.545; +8.0% month-on-month
- Cheddar curd +1.0% to €3.430
- Emmental declined week-on-week to €3.875 despite +2.2% monthly increase
- Volume cheeses / white cheese: remain under pressure, particularly from Swiss supply
- Hi-Lo cheeses (high protein / low fat): segment continues to grow; prices largely fixed through end of June, increases expected for July
Milk Powders
SMP and WMP markets weakened in week 22
-
- SMP Food −3.1% to €2,840
- WMP −1.2% to €3,270
- SWP Feed +1.6% to €1,620
- SWP Food −3.1% to €1,740
→ US SMP prices are now above EU levels, strengthening the competitiveness of EU exports
WPC80 and WPI90 reached a new record at €26,450/t (vs. €12,000/t one year ago) → driven by GLP-1-related consumption shifts. Demand exceeds production capacity. → MPC85 increased from €8,500 to €11,000/t. correction possible, but market structurally firm
Liquid Markets
Slightly firmer. Spot milk +€1.50 to €21/100 kg. Processing capacities are largely fully utilized; the market is moving towards balance. Skimmed milk concentrate +€50 to €1,775/t. Whey concentrate stable at €1,085/t. Potential FrieslandCampina strikes currently have no impact on the spot market.
Milk Fat
Market remains calm. Cream +€150 to €4,335/t. Butter slightly lower (−€15 to €3,955/t).
AMF +€75 to €4,875/t. High butter stocks continue to cap upside and support a sideways trend.
Switzerland – Structural Shift Those who want value creation must enable it – not manage it.
Milk production March 2026: 317,249 t (+5.2%) Jan–Mar: 891,976 t (+6.1%)
Cheese Production 2026
- Hi-Lo: export-driven, no stock building; exports grow faster than production → inventories declining
- AOP cheeses: stock building (Emmental under pressure)
- Non-specified cheeses incl. Raclette: stock building (production outpacing exports)
From Powder to Consumer Cheese:
The shift from powder to industrial cheese is a direct consequence of a weakened powder industry (Cremo, Hochdorf). This is an opportunity: cheese dairies are again fully utilized and able to invest.
The next step is required: from industrial cheese to consumer cheese.
This requires political frameworks that reward value creation rather than managing mediocrity.
- Strengthen the image of flower meadow cheese with raw milk → increase silage-free milk premium
- Promote consumer cheese → increase cheese production subsidy
- Reduce state-supported sales promotion → it reinforces existing structures and limits innovation and differentiation
Recommendations
Geopolitical volatility argues against blanket hedging strategies.
A selective, segment-based approach remains essential.
Prices are elevated; major corrections are currently not expected.
In the protein segment, however, corrections remain possible.
Outlook Q2 2026
- Flower meadow cheese with raw milk: stable
- Gouda / semi-hard cheeses: stable to slightly stronger
- Mozzarella: upward trend
- Cagliata: upward trend
- Hi-Lo cheeses: stable
- SMP: short-term pressure, structurally firm
- Butter: volatile, weak bias (stocks)
- Whey proteins: sideways (very strong demand)
- WMP: stable to slightly stronger, possible weakness in September
Outlook Q3 2026 (seasonally quieter)
- Flower meadow cheese with raw milk: strengthening into autumn
- Gouda: stable, possible September weakness
- Mozzarella: stable, possible September weakness
- Cagliata: increasing, possible September weakness
- Hi-Lo: increasing
- SMP: slightly firmer, risk of September weakness
- Butter: volatile, weak bias
- Whey proteins: sideways, possible strengthening towards year-end
- WMP: stable, potential September weaknes
Q4 2026
Outlook currently highly uncertain.
Price Drivers
- Seasonal flower meadow cheese with raw milk
- Stable demand
- Low inventories
- Strong demand for whey proteins
Risks
- High dairy herd levels in New Zealand
- Potential USD weakness
- EU milk curve similar to 2025
- Seasonal weakness from October
- Geopolitical risk (Strait of Hormuz → energy prices → higher processing costs)
- Structural shift: large dairies with microfiltration gain advantages in whey valorisation → pressure on smaller dairies
Strategic Outlook – Strategy Beats Opportunism
European milk volumes are likely to grow only moderately in 2026; a trend reversal in 2027 cannot be ruled out. Those who act opportunistically today risk lacking supply capability tomorrow. A stable supplier base is not an option — it is a strategic necessity.
Strategy beats opportunism — those who secure the right partners today will be able to deliver in 2027 when others are still searching.
Our Trade Fair Presence 2026
- Salon du Fromage, Paris – 7–9 June 2026
- Summer Fancy Food – 28–30 June 2026
- SIAL Paris – 17–21 October 2026
- World Cheese Awards, Córdoba – 12 November 2026
- Marca Bologna – 13–14 January 2027
Treat yourself to a genuine Swiss Flower Meadow cheese with raw milk — not just a delight, but a small piece of joie de vivre for the soul.
Warm regards, Affineur Walo
This forecast is based on our market knowledge. It does not constitute a definitive prediction, and we accept no liability should it prove incorrect.
